The next industrial revolution

, led by the aerospace sector.
The human population has increased threefold over the past 50 years, with most of this growth occurring in the emerging world: Asia, Africa and Latin America. Europe by contrast, has remained nearly static. This huge increase in humanity, combined with individual drive to improve personal wealth is the engine of global economic growth. ‘Old world' G8 nations (Europe, USA, Japan) are stagnating while emerging nations (India, China) undergo a 21st century industrial revolution. In Japan, 75% of the population is over 30 years old whereas in India 75% of the population is under 30 years. This growth is also driving new markets for air travel in the East. Climate change and the cost of energy will drive the next 50 year economic cycle. Aviation gas has increased in price by a factor of eight or nine in as many years and fuel now accounts for 60-70% of an airline's turnover. However, while modern technology has made the A380 more efficient than its predecessors, it still has the highest weight to passenger ratio of any commercial aircraft at 1,100kg. All the signs of this problem are clear. Air cargo endured a dreadful first half of 2009 with traffic falling 25-30% just as Airbus and Boeing were introducing new and expensive cargo wide bodies. Freighters are traditionally converted from old passenger aircraft and there was no demand for these brand new $200m freighters. 12 months on, following a dramatic recovery from recession, there is suddenly an insatiable demand for the new Airbus A330-200F, 25% of which is composite (by weight). A similar scenario is emerging in the passenger business. Singapore Airlines has one of the most modern fleets of any airline with 11 A380s and 80 Boeing 777s, and is the world's most profitable airline business. One 20th century definition of an advanced nation is the ability to refine and manufacture stronger, lower mass materials. The Carbon fibre sector is like Silicon Valley on steroids, with recent growth of 25% of compound annual growth rate. However, a significant world shortage is forecast over the next decade. The world will consume 43,000tonnes/year of carbon fibre in 2010. By 2020, predicted global demand is between 240,000 and 340,000tonnes/year, though the figure is always being revised upwards as new businesses are identified. 20% of this figure is accounted for by the aerospace sector. World sales of 140+ seat commercial jets are expected to exceed 1,500/year by 2020, equating to 97,000tonnes empty weight. Since these aircraft are typically 50% composite, and composite is around 50% carbon fibre, commercial aerospace will need 29,100 tonnes/year, including 20% processing wastage. We must understand how to manufacture large quantities of high quality, low cost, carbon fibre as well as new ranges with various surface properties. One of the most important developments will be a replacement for PAN, the current, inefficient precursor to carbon fibre. For example, oxidising carbon fibre after UHT treatment will roughen its surface enhancing matrix bonding, improving composite compressive properties. Composites are also fatigue sensitive at the moment and require multiple NDT inspections. In the aircraft industry each part is typically inspected six times during manufacture and assembly. The problem in seeking innovative manufacturing of composites is not whether we should use autoclaves or not, but rather that we need a more ‘tolerant' composite matrix material. We must research tolerant materials, develop flexible fibres that are ductile and can be woven. In doing so there are many potential areas for improvement. Increasingly novel hybrid matrices which may have ‘crack stopping' and other, more predictable properties will need to be developed as well as various processing techniques, particularly around radical spinning concepts. Doing so will bring the optimised strength, functionality and weight characteristics required to meet the next generation of transport products. www.manchester.ac.uk/nccef